je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-08 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
kevin
storm
advisory
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-08 01:15:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 072315 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles southwest of the southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have been decreasing during the past several hours. Strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are expected to prevent significant development of this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph during the next few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds still are possible over portions of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for gradual development over the next several days, and this system could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week. The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward the west-northwest by mid-week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A surface trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, reaching portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-08 01:08:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 072308 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 7 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Kevin, located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is forming a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle portions of next week. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-07 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Aug 2021 20:42:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Aug 2021 20:42:33 GMT
Tags: graphics
kevin
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-07 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072038 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone today. Banding has increased over the western and southern portions of the circulation while a small CDO has developed near the center. Scatterometer data from around 1700 UTC revealed an area of 30-kt winds to the northwest of the center, but with the continued increase in organization and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Kevin becomes the eleventh named storm in the eastern Pacific basin during the 2021 season, which is running about a month ahead of schedule as the eleventh named storm typically does not form until early-to-mid September. Kevin is located within an environment of low-to-moderate shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are expected to support steady strengthening over the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. There is some spread in the intensity guidance with the statistical guidance on the more aggressive side as compared to some of the dynamical models. The NHC wind speed forecast lies a little above the various consensus models but slightly below the SHIPS guidance. The storm is moving westward or 270/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge that extends across the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to steer Kevin generally westward during the next 36 hours. After that time, a cut-off low west of the Baja peninsula is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge causing Kevin to turn west- northwestward to northwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS, which depicts an unrealistic elongation of the system's low-level vorticity in about 48 hours, shows a much sharper northward or northwestward motion from 48-72 hours. Less weight was placed on that solution with the NHC track remaining closer to the bulk of the guidance and the various consensus aids. The latest track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.8N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
kevin
storm
Sites : [514] [515] [516] [517] [518] [519] [520] [521] [522] [523] [524] [525] [526] [527] [528] [529] [530] [531] [532] [533] next »