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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-08 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 02:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 02:33:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-08 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Kevin appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show that the storm has a central dense overcast feature that is surrounded by fragmented curved bands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt. The cyclone is moving westward, or 270 degrees, at 10 kt. Kevin is expected to continue westward for about another day or so while it remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge to its north. After that time, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast as a mid- to upper-level trough erodes the western portion of the ridge, allowing Kevin to gain more latitude. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is currently over warm 29 C waters and embedded in a very moist air mass. These conditions support strengthening, but there could be a moderate amount of northeasterly shear that will likely prevent rapid intensification. Nonetheless, steady strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane during that time period. Beyond that time, however, progressively cooler waters and drier air should cause Kevin to level off in strength and then begin to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.8N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-08 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 7 59(66) 11(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 110W 50 X 20(20) 9(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 110W 64 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 14(28) 6(34) 1(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 59(74) 5(79) X(79) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 4(40) X(40) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 2(20) X(20) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 38(43) 11(54) 1(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 13(39) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-08 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 7 the center of Kevin was located near 15.8, -107.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-08 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...KEVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 107.7W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 107.7 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday, and spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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