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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 4
2021-07-15 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...FELICIA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 116.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.7 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn to the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a west-southwestward motion on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days, and Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane late tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-15 01:17:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 142317 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical area of low pressure, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, is producing limited shower activity but winds to near gale force, mainly to the north of the center. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some slight development of this system is possible while it moves little over the next day or so. On Friday, the low is expected to accelerate northeastward and open up into a trough of low pressure to the south of Atlantic Canada. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-15 01:09:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 142309 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Felicia, located over 600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue offshore of the coast of southern Mexico in association with a tropical wave moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Pubic Advisories on Tropical Storm Felicia are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Felicia are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Felicia Graphics
2021-07-14 22:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Jul 2021 20:34:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Jul 2021 20:34:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-14 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in organization and convective banding in association with Felicia. The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates. Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening, perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through 24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through much of the forecast period. Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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