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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 37A
2021-07-09 13:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 091148 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 73.1W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sandy Hook, New Jersey. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 73.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near or over eastern Long Island and the coast of southern New England today, and then offshore the northeastern United States coast by late this afternoon. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44066 located about 85 miles (140 km) east of Long Beach, New Jersey recently measured a peak one-minute sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches), based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread into the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast this morning and continue through early afternoon. Elsa is likely to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-09 13:48:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 11:48:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 09:22:44 GMT
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-09 13:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091142 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Jul 9 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern coast of Mexico by early next week. Any subsequent development of this system is expected to be gradual as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-09 13:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091141 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elsa, centered just offshore the coasts of New Jersey and New York. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 37
2021-07-09 10:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090844 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 Elsa has become better organized this early Friday morning as evidenced by a tightly coiled convective band that wraps completely around the low-level circulation center, along with Doppler radar velocities of more than 80 kt detected between 3000-7000 ft. Upper-level outflow has expanded in all directions except the southwestern quadrant, and the GFS and ECMWF models have assessed the vertical wind shear to only be 10 kt and 13 kt, respectively, over the center. Wind gusts to 68 kt and 62 kt were recently measured in Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, and Beach Haven, New Jersey, respectively. However, radar data suggest that these wind gusts were possibly associated with the passage of nearby tornadic circulations and were not due to Elsa's larger wind field. The central pressure of 1000 mb is based on a nearby pressure report of 1000.6 mb from the Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, WeatherFlow site, but this value could be conservative. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on recent observations from offshore buoys. The initial motion is estimated to be 045/27 kt. Elsa is forecast by the latest global and regional models to continue accelerating northeastward today through Saturday due to the system being embedded within deep-layer southwesterly mid-latitude flow. Elsa should move over southeastern New England today and over Atlantic Canada late tonight and on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast lies on top of the previous advisory track and is close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Elsa will be moving over 22-deg-C and cooler sea-surface temperatures by 6 hours and beyond, which should further hasten the ongoing extratropical transition process. This transition is expected to be completed in 18 hours or so when Elsa is forecast to be located over Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves near Long Island and southern and coastal New England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by late this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 39.4N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 12H 09/1800Z 42.2N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 46.6N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1800Z 51.3N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z 55.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/1800Z 59.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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