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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 36
2021-07-09 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 090233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SURF CITY...NORTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET...NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET...NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 77.3W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 76.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-09 01:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 23:45:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 21:22:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-09 01:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM ELSA CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND... As of 8:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 the center of Elsa was located near 36.8, -77.4 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 35A
2021-07-09 01:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 082345 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM ELSA CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 77.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 77.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km), well to the southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow weather station on Alligator Bridge in Dare County, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the North Carolina coast and along the mid-Atlantic coast later this evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-09 01:26:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
364 ABNT20 KNHC 082326 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elsa, located inland over eastern Virginia. A broad area of low pressure, over south Texas, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this system is not anticipated since it is expected to drift westward and remain over land, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas Gulf coast over the next couple of days. See products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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