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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-08 19:42:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 081742 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 8 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Papin/Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-08 19:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elsa, located inland over North Carolina. A broad area of low pressure nearly stationary over south Texas is continuing to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this system is not anticipated since it is expected to remain over land, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible along the Texas Gulf coast over the next few days. See products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 34
2021-07-08 16:58:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 081458 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Surface synoptic observations and high-resolution satellite images indicate that the center of the storm has moved into North Carolina. WSR 88-D Doppler radar data and surface reports indicate that the maximum winds are near 40 kt. These highest winds are likely occurring in some of the stronger convective bands near the coast. Elsa is gradually accelerating toward the northeast, and the initial motion is about 040/17 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada during the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and continues to follow the multi-model consensus. Some slight intensification is possible within the next 24-36 hours due to baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude short wave trough. Around 36 hours, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models depicts a cloud pattern resembling that of a frontal cyclone. Moreover, the FSU phase analyses of the GFS fields shows the system becoming extratropical at that time. This is also reflected in the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across North Carolina and Virginia today, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today and the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 35.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-08 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 14:57:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 14:57:34 GMT
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elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2021-07-08 16:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 081457 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 12(12) 33(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 26(26) 12(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 1 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 48(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 10 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WALLOPS CDA 34 12 43(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) DANVILLE VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 50 9(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NORFOLK NAS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 50 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) OCEANA NAS VA 34 45 9(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ELIZABETH CTY 34 41 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) RALEIGH NC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FAYETTEVILLE 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) CHERRY PT NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEW RIVER NC 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WILMINGTON NC 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BALD HEAD ISL 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MYRTLE BEACH 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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