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Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-05-11 16:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111435 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 111.4W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 111.4W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.8N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.7N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 111.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ANDRES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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Tropical Depression Andres Graphics
2021-05-11 10:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 08:42:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 09:22:42 GMT
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Tropical Depression Andres Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-05-11 10:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 The harsh surrounding upper wind environment has taken a toll on Andres. The last few fragments of the depression's deep convection dissipated around 1000 PM MDT (0400 UTC) with the exposed center of Andres now traversing slightly cooler oceanic temperatures. The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt based on a 0343 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass. The strong shear and decreasing SSTs are likely to cause Andres to become a remnant low later this morning and degenerate into a surface trough late Wednesday night. The depression is moving westward, or 270/6 kt while embedded in the low-level tradewind flow. Vertically shallow Andres and its remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, and is close to the TVCE eastern Pacific consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.9N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 15.8N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-05-11 10:34:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0900 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Andres (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-11 10:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue May 11 the center of Andres was located near 15.9, -111.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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