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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-30 04:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri May 29 the center of ANDRES was located near 13.4, -115.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 8
2015-05-30 04:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015 ...ANDRES CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 115.2W ABOUT 740 MI...1195 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 115.2 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening by Sunday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane ANDRES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-05-30 04:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300240 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0300 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-29 23:03:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 May 2015 20:38:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 May 2015 21:03:45 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-05-29 22:56:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292056 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015 Corrected to change NHC model to NHC model guidance Convective banding features have increased since the previous advisory, and a tight banding eye feature has occasionally appeared in visible satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values are T4.3/72 kt. Based on these data, Andres has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Andres has made the anticipated turn toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/06 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for about the next 36-48 hours as the hurricane moves around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across mainland Mexico and Baja California. The ridge is forecast to gradually build westward after 72 hours, forcing Andres to turn back toward the west-northwest. The NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing scenario, and the guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast track. As a result, the official forecast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track. Despite moderate northerly vertical wind shear, Andres has maintained a fairly impressive outflow pattern. However, the 850-200 mb vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to around 15 kt during the next 24 hours, followed by decreasing shear at 36 to 48 hours. Now that Andres has established better inner-core convection and a possible eye feature, at least modest strengthening should occur during the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, decreasing sea surface temperatures and cooler and more stable low-level air lying just to the northwest of the hurricane should begin to affect Andres. Visible satellite imagery already indicates that cold air stratocumulus clouds are being advected into the northwestern portion of the outer circulation, which should mitigate the otherwise favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, a steady decrease in the intensity should occur after 72 hours, despite the low vertical wind shear regime through which the cyclone will be moving. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is above the intensity consensus model ICON and close to the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.8N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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