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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 62

2017-09-20 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 202038 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) 1(13) CONCORD NH 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) WORCESTER MA 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 4(18) 1(19) 1(20) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 1(17) 1(18) BOSTON MA 34 5 4( 9) 4(13) 4(17) 4(21) 1(22) 1(23) HYANNIS MA 34 11 11(22) 8(30) 4(34) 4(38) 2(40) X(40) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 21 12(33) 9(42) 5(47) 4(51) 1(52) 1(53) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 5 7(12) 5(17) 4(21) 5(26) 2(28) 2(30) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 1(18) 2(20) NEW HAVEN CT 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 5(18) 1(19) 2(21) HARTFORD CT 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20) NEW LONDON CT 34 5 5(10) 4(14) 4(18) 6(24) 2(26) 1(27) ALBANY NY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 7 5(12) 5(17) 6(23) 5(28) 3(31) 1(32) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLIP NY 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) 4(17) 2(19) 3(22) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 3(17) 2(19) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 2(17) NEWARK NJ 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 2(16) TRENTON NJ 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 2(17) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 3(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 X( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 3(14) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) DOVER DE 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-20 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 20 the center of Jose was located near 39.2, -69.1 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 62

2017-09-20 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 69.1W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jose is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A slow westward motion should begin by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Jose is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44008, located about 65 miles southeast of Nantucket, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area tonight and continue through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next several days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...1 to 2 inches. Nantucket...2 to 4 inches. These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 62

2017-09-20 22:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202037 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 62 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 69.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 200SE 180SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 69.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 69.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 170SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.6N 67.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.6N 68.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.5N 69.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 39.3N 70.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 39.4N 71.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.2N 69.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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