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Hurricane Jose Graphics

2017-09-19 17:05:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 15:05:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 15:05:54 GMT

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 57

2017-09-19 17:00:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191459 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jose's overall structure and wind field have changed little since the previous advisory. Although the highest 700-mb flight-level wind and SFMR surface winds reported by the aircraft were 66 kt and 57 kt, respectively, these winds were observed in areas of little or no convection. Given the large size of Jose's wind field, it unlikely that the aircraft sampled the strongest winds, and the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The aircraft also measured a central pressure of 976 mb, indicating that Jose remains a strong cyclone. The low-level center has been wobbling around inside the larger inner-core circulation, resulting in a forward motion a little west of due north or 350/06 kt. Overall there is no significant change to the previous track forecast. The global and regional models remain in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning toward the northeast and east over the next couple days as it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic. On days 3-5, the models agree on a high-latitude ridge building to the north of the cyclone, forcing Jose to move slowly or drift southward over the North Atlantic. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models. Since the previous advisory, shallow convection has been increasing in both depth and areal coverage in the southeastern semicircle, while deeper convection has remained over the northwestern semicircle. The recent formation of convection to the southeast is beginning to give Jose the appearance of developing a large truck-tire eye with a diameter of approximately 100 nmi. Such eye patterns typically indicate a fairly stable cyclone that doesn't weaken or weakens only slowly. Although the center of Jose will be moving over 21C SSTs by 36-48 h, a significant portion of the large circulation will still be situated over water south of the Gulf Stream that is positioned along 40N latitude, which will maintain a southerly feed of warm, moist, unstable air into and north of the center. Given the combination of the aforementioned favorable thermodynamic conditions and only modest vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, the intensity forecast remains basically unchanged from the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the U.S. east coast from Long Island to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 36.5N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 39.9N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 39.9N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 39.2N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/1200Z 38.7N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/1200Z 38.4N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-19 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE MAINTAINING STATUS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Jose was located near 36.5, -71.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 57

2017-09-19 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191458 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...JOSE MAINTAINING STATUS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 71.7W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from New Haven to Watch Hill. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located by an an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 71.7 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today with a turn to the northeast anticipated tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). NOAA Buoy 44014, located east of the Virginia-North Carolina border or about 160 miles west of the center of Jose, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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