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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 60

2017-09-20 10:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 200841 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 60 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 2(14) CONCORD NH 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 2(15) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 2(14) 3(17) 2(19) WORCESTER MA 34 8 3(11) 3(14) 2(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 3(19) 1(20) BOSTON MA 34 9 5(14) 3(17) 2(19) 4(23) 3(26) 1(27) HYANNIS MA 34 26 9(35) 5(40) 3(43) 4(47) 4(51) 1(52) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 43 10(53) 4(57) 3(60) 3(63) 3(66) X(66) NANTUCKET MA 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 16 6(22) 4(26) 2(28) 5(33) 4(37) 1(38) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 8 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 4(20) 3(23) 1(24) NEW HAVEN CT 34 8 4(12) 2(14) 2(16) 4(20) 4(24) X(24) HARTFORD CT 34 8 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) NEW LONDON CT 34 14 5(19) 3(22) 2(24) 5(29) 3(32) 2(34) ALBANY NY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 22 5(27) 3(30) 3(33) 5(38) 4(42) 1(43) ISLIP NY 34 10 3(13) 2(15) 3(18) 4(22) 4(26) 1(27) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 7 2( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 4(14) 3(17) 1(18) NEWARK NJ 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) TRENTON NJ 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) NWS EARLE NJ 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) ALLENTOWN PA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) DOVER DE 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 2(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-20 10:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 the center of Jose was located near 38.4, -70.3 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 60

2017-09-20 10:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200840 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 60 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 ...JOSE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 70.3W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The tropical storm watch has been discontinued along the coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today with a decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning today. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...1 to 2 inches. Nantucket...2 to 4 inches. These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 60

2017-09-20 10:40:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200840 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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