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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-12 10:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120835 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery at this time. The cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective band on the southern semicircle, and the system is devoid of an inner convective core near the center. Barry is an asymmetric storm with most of the tropical-storm-force winds occurring in the eastern semicircle. An Air Force plane sampled the area a few hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds of 43 kt. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane will be investigating Barry in a few hours. Barry is moving over warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius, and still has the opportunity to strengthen. Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall in about 24 hours. Most of the models show modest strengthening despite the northerly shear and the effect of the dry air. After landfall, steady weakening is anticipated. The broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This is taking the average motion of the several swirls rotating around a larger circulation. The cyclone should soon begin to turn toward the northwest and then northward around the periphery of a mid-level ridge. The overall guidance has changed very little and the NHC forecast is not different from the previous one. It is in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 28.1N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.4N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 30.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/0600Z 36.5N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 39.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-12 10:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BARRY HEADING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WINDS CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 the center of Barry was located near 28.1, -90.2 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 8
2019-07-12 10:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120834 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019 ...BARRY HEADING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WINDS CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 90.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Shell Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 90.2 West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A track toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana tonight or Saturday, and then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, a few hours ago, indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane tonight or early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure estimated from a surface observations nearby was 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area tonight or Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early today, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight or Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-07-12 10:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 120834 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0900 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GULFPORT MS 34 7 13(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 34 2 10(12) 19(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BURAS LA 34 28 17(45) 8(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 7 31(38) 20(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 45 13(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 280N 910W 64 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 23(24) 41(65) 7(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 6 57(63) 20(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 11(11) 17(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 18(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 21(22) 45(67) 8(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 2( 2) 23(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 31(32) 41(73) 5(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 3( 3) 24(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 9 28(37) 6(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) FORT POLK LA 34 X 3( 3) 23(26) 14(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 6( 6) 33(39) 10(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 3 18(21) 28(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 9(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) 1(21) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 2 3( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 5( 7) 10(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-07-12 10:34:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120834 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0900 UTC FRI JUL 12 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO GRAND ISLE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO SHELL BEACH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SHELL BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 90.2W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 90.2W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.4N 90.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.0N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.5N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 39.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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