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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 17A
2019-07-14 19:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 958 WTNT32 KNHC 141747 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 ...BARRY CONTINUES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 93.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Cameron A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located by NOAA Doppler radars and surface observations near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 93.6 West. Barry is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northward motion is forecast tonight through Monday morning. A motion toward the north-northeast and northeast is expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across the northwestern portions of Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and Monday. NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring near the coast well to the southeast and south of the center. Weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported at an NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the southern coast of Louisiana are gradually receding. However, some minor coastal flooding is still possible through today. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions will persist through early this afternoon. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across portions of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, eastern Arkansas, and western Tennessee. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Barry Graphics
2019-07-14 16:59:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 14:59:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Jul 2019 15:24:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-07-14 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 835 WTNT42 KNHC 141451 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 Barry's radar and satellite presentations have continued to degrade, which is typical for an inland tropical cyclone. However, some curved rain bands producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds still exist over water and along the south-central and southwestern coastal areas of Louisiana. Data from the Ft. Polk WSR-88D radar indicated average Doppler velocity values of 50-59 kt at 11,000-14,000 ft between 0900-1200 UTC this morning over the Gulf of Mexico, which would yield equivalent surface winds of 40-45 kt. Thus, Barry's intensity was maintained at 40 kt at the 1200 UTC synoptic time. Since then, Doppler velocities have decreased to around 45 kt at 11,000 ft and surface winds of 34 kt have recently been reported at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana. Therefore, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt at the 1500 UTC advisory time. The pressure of 1006 mb is based on nearby surface observations. The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to continue moving northward today and tonight into a break in the subtropical ridge, and turn toward north-northeast and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various simple consensus models and the NOAA HCCA model. Barry will weaken further today as it continues to move inland, and it should become a tropical depression by tonight if not sooner. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the potential for flooding, including river flooding, continues from Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises. 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continue along portions of the Louisiana coast for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.8N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 32.8N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 34.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 35.7N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 37.4N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-07-14 16:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 759 FONT12 KNHC 141445 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 1500 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-14 16:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BARRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 the center of Barry was located near 31.8, -93.4 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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