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Tropical Storm Barry Graphics
2019-07-13 22:59:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 20:59:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 21:24:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-13 22:57:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 20:57:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-13 22:57:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 20:57:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-07-13 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 345 WTNT42 KNHC 132056 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Barry moved inland across Marsh Island and Intracoastal City, Louisiana around 16-18Z. Since then, the system has moved farther inland and weakening has started. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on recent observations from Eugene Island and Cypremort Point. The initial motion is now 330/6. Barry should continue north-northwestward and northward through Louisiana for the next 30-36 h as the cyclone moves through a weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should encounter the westerlies and turn north-northeastward before they dissipate. The new NHC forecast track has changed little from the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models. Barry should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and it is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength in about 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone should degenerate to a remnant low between 48-72 h and dissipate between 72-96 h. It should be noted that by Sunday morning the strongest winds will likely be occurring well away from the center over the Louisiana coast and the coastal waters. Barry made landfall as a hurricane. However, due to the poor center definition, the exact times and locations will be determined in post-analysis. Key Messages: 1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Life-threatening, significant flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely across portions of south-central and southeast Louisiana into Mississippi through Sunday as Barry moves farther inland. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat from Sunday into next week, extending from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley. 3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 30.1N 92.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0600Z 31.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1800Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0600Z 33.6N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1800Z 35.0N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1800Z 38.5N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2019-07-13 22:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 132055 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 2100 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BATON ROUGE LA 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 23 38(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LAFAYETTE LA 50 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FORT POLK LA 34 35 30(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) FORT POLK LA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 24 15(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) KOUNTZE TX 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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