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Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-24 22:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 20:47:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 20:47:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 There has been little change to the structure of Marco over the past few hours, with the deep convection and associated heavy rainfall being sheared well to the northeast of the exposed center of circulation. Based on earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft and scatterometer data, there was a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in the strongest convection located about 50-75 n mi offshore of the northern Gulf coast. Since the shower and thunderstorm activity is persisting, it is assumed that these winds are still occurring in that offshore area and the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. The exposed vortex should continue to spin down as the center of the cyclone reaches the southeastern Louisiana coast late this evening, which would result in the coastal areas being spared from experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The official NHC forecast shows Marco weakening to a tropical depression tonight, which is in agreement with the model guidance. Strong vertical wind shear should strip away any remaining convection associated with Marco at some point tonight, as indicated by GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. When the convection does diminish, most of the model guidance does not show any significant new convection developing thereafter. So it is anticipated that Marco will degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday. Marco's initial motion is northwest at 6 kt. As the cyclone continues to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected as the system becomes steered in the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the TVCN consensus track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week, and tropical cyclone wind and surge watches have been issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 29.0N 88.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 29.7N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1800Z 30.3N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 30.8N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-24 22:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARCO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Marco was located near 29.0, -88.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242046 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST FOR TROPICAL STORM LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 88.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 88.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.7N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.3N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.8N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 88.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242046 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...MARCO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 88.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. Tropical cyclone wind and surge watches have been issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast for Tropical Storm Laura. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 88.9 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), a turn to the west-northwest and a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur tonight. On the forecast track, Marco will move inland over southeastern Louisiana tonight, and across southern Louisiana on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight and degenerate to a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service weather station located on Petit Bois Island, Mississippi recently reported a wind gust to 38 mph (61 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible over the coastal sections of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with additional isolated totals of 7 inches across portions of the north-central Gulf coast and southeastern United States through Wednesday. Rain totals related to Marco near Apalachicola, Florida reached as high as 11.81 inches on Sunday per a CoCoRaHS report. The additional rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the same area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon through tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, far southern Alabama, and far southern Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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