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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 242046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) STENNIS MS 34 16 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BURAS LA 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 10 10(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-24 20:01:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 18:01:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 17:57:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241756 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Special Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Marco continues to weaken as the deep convection has been stripped away from the center since this morning. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system has reported peak 925 mb flight level winds of 38 kt. Although there have been a few recent higher SFMR measurements that are due to rain contamination, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed only a small area of 30-35 kt winds. Based on these data the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt and a special advisory has been issued to update the short-term intensity forecast and discontinue warnings for the Gulf coast. The showers and thunderstorms generating the tropical storm force winds to the northeast of Marco's center are forecast by most models to gradually dissipate through this evening. Based on how quickly the vortex has been spinning down and the anticipated decrease of convection, it is reasonable to assume that sustained tropical storm force winds will no longer reach the northern Gulf coast. Therefore, all wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast associated with Marco have been discontinued. Shortly after the cyclone reaches the Gulf Coast later tonight it should degenerate to a remnant low, with this low dissipating inland within a couple of days. The latest intensity forecast was adjusted downward through 12 h, but remains the same as the previous NHC forecast thereafter. Marco has been moving slowly all day, and an initial motion estimate is now 320/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. As the cyclone continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected as the system becomes steered in the low level flow. The latest forecast track was adjusted slightly northward through 12 h, but remains the same as the previous one until the system dissipates. This special advisory package replaces the 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) intermediate public advisory. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week, and tropical cyclone wind and surge watches and warnings could be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1800Z 28.7N 88.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-24 19:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARCO WEAKENS... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Marco was located near 28.7, -88.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241756 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Special Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...MARCO WEAKENS... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 88.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning for the U.S. Gulf Coast have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. Tropical cyclone wind and surge watches or warnings are likely to be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today for Tropical Storm Laura. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 88.6 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur by Tuesday, and this motion should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. Aircraft and satellite derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight and degenerate to a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of the center over water. A National Ocean Service weather station located on Petit Bois Island, Mississippi recently reported a wind gust to 35 mph (58 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by aircraft reconnaissance is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible over the coastal sections of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the same area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today into tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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