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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2020-08-24 16:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 241442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 8 18(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) STENNIS MS 34 6 28(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) STENNIS MS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 21 24(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BURAS LA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 36(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 20(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEESLER AB 34 11 13(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-08-24 16:41:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 88.5W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 88.5W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.2N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 88.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)

2020-08-24 13:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARCO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Marco was located near 28.1, -88.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 16A

2020-08-24 13:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241155 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...MARCO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 88.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 88.4 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana through Tuesday night. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS, including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start by this afternoon in portions of the warning area. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding in the area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from southeast Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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