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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-29 16:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 63.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The government of the Bahamas has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 63.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or just south of Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-07-29 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 291448 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS AS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO CAUCEDO * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 63.7W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 63.7W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.9N 66.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.9N 73.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 76.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.8N 80.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.3N 82.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 63.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-29 13:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 11:44:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 09:24:55 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-29 13:43:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Jul 29 the center of Nine was located near 15.1, -62.1 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-07-29 13:43:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291143 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 62.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas Interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 62.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast today, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some restrengthening possible late week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north and northeast of the center. A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported on St. Kitts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and the Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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