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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Graphics
2020-08-05 07:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Aug 2020 05:50:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Aug 2020 03:23:32 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-08-05 07:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAIAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC... As of 2:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 the center of Isaias was located near 46.1, -72.2 with movement NNE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisory Number 32A
2020-08-05 07:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050550 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 ...ISAIAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.1N 72.2W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF QUEBEC CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Merrimack River Massachusetts to Stonington Maine has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias was located near latitude 46.1 North, longitude 72.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected with a decrease in forward speed through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and the winds are expected to drop below tropical-storm force during the next few hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate over southeastern Canada tonight or on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (165 km) to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Gale-force winds are possible over portions of southeastern Quebec for a few more hours. See products issued by Environment Canada for more information. RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along and near the track of Isaias across Southern Quebec. Additional rainfall of up to an inch is possible across western and northern Maine overnight. As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below flood stage today. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will affect the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Graphics
2020-08-05 04:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Aug 2020 02:49:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Aug 2020 03:23:32 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 32
2020-08-05 04:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050246 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 Satellite and radar data, along with surface observations, indicate that Isaias has lost its tropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with a weak baroclinic zone over New England and southeastern Canada. Thus, it is being designated a post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based mainly on a recent observation at the Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire, and these winds are occurring over the Gulf of Maine well to the southeast of the center. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken further, with winds dropping below 35 kt early tomorrow. After that, the system is forecast to be absorbed into a large baroclinic low over southeastern Canada between 36-48 h. The initial motion remains north-northeastward or 020/33 kt. A continued general north-northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed by the larger low. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in the center of the tightly-clustered track guidance models. While Isaias is now post-tropical, the National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories until the Tropical Storm Warning can be discontinued along the coast of the United States. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power outages will continue over portions of New England for a few more hours. 2. As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below flood stage Wednesday. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. 3. The threat of tornadoes will continue over portions of Maine for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 45.3N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 05/1200Z 49.1N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/0000Z 52.6N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/1200Z 54.0N 68.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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