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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-29 10:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 08:48:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 08:48:32 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-29 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290846 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 Satellite and surface data indicate that the system remains a trough of low pressure, elongated from SSW to NNE, with almost all of the strong winds far north of the center position. The most significant curvature in the low-level wind field and on radar are near Dominica now, which has good continuity from the previous advisory, so this feature will continue to be used as the center. A combination of unflagged SFMR winds from an Air Force plane and earlier scatterometer winds support 40 kt as the initial wind speed. The initial motion estimate is about the same as before or 295/20 kt. The ridge to the north of the disturbance is forecast to remain strong for the next 36 h, which keeps the system moving speedily in a general west-northwestward direction just south of the Leeward Islands today, and near or over the Greater Antilles on Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken after that time, which should cause the cyclone to slow down, and potentially gain more latitude over the southwestern Atlantic. The model guidance is generally showing a narrow ridge persisting for a bit longer, however, causing a small south and west shift in the new NHC forecast at long range. However, it should be emphasized that this forecast track is highly uncertain until a true center forms. Satellite images indicate that a large burst of convection is occuring near the poorly defined center, which will likely lead to the system becoming a tropical storm later today. Further intensification is possible before landfall in the Dominican Republic on Thursday, assuming the structure continues to improve, and the wind speed forecast is adjusted slightly higher in the near term. The cyclone will probably take some time to recover after moving over the very high mountains of Hispaniola, and some of the guidance after that time shows an increase in southwesterly shear over the Straits of Florida that could limit the potential of the cyclone. Simply put, there are a lot of hurdles in the system's way, so it is best to stay on the conservative side at the moment and continue to stress the large uncertainty after it leaves the Caribbean. Little change was made to the forecast intensity, although the guidance has come down at longer range for many of the models. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and spreading westward to portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 61.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1800Z 16.3N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 30/0600Z 17.8N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 19.3N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 20.6N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 31/1800Z 22.1N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 23.3N 78.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 28.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-29 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Jul 29 the center of Nine was located near 15.3, -61.3 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-29 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 660 WTNT34 KNHC 290845 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF DOMINICA ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas Interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 61.3 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move through the southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast today, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some restrengthening possible late week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. Antigua recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the Leeward Islands now and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and the Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These dangerous conditions are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-29 10:45:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 290845 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 11(26) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 11(26) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 10(29) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 8(34) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) 6(37) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 6(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 5(28) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 5(39) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 5(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 9(37) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 12(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 15(30) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) 4(27) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 9(33) 1(34) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 32(34) 8(42) 1(43) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 30(37) 1(38) 1(39) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 1(21) X(21) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 37(37) 10(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 14(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 62(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 3( 3) 45(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 X 85(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 78(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 81(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) VIEQUES PR 34 11 76(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) SAINT THOMAS 34 20 58(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT CROIX 34 54 39(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAINT MAARTEN 34 63 4(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SABA 34 90 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ST EUSTATIUS 34 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BARBUDA 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 43 X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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