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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-08-05 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 02:40:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 02:40:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-05 04:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 The system has not become noticeably better organized since earlier today, with a small area of deep convection near the center and some slightly curved bands of convection well removed to the east and northeast of the center. Microwave imagery also suggests little change in structure. The current intensity is held at 30 kt for now, in agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate for motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to be maintained for the next 48-72 hours. This should keep the system on a generally northwestward heading until late in the forecast period. By that time, the weakening cyclone should turn a little to the left following the low-level environmental winds. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and just to the right of the multi-model consensus, in slight deference to the GFS solution which is even farther to the right of these tracks. Since the system should be in a fairly moist, low-shear environment for the next day or so, at least some slight strengthening seems likely. Thereafter, cooler SSTs and increased shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above most of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.3N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-05 04:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 5:00 PM HST Wed Aug 4 the center of Nine-E was located near 15.3, -136.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-05 04:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 136.2W ABOUT 1790 MI...2885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 136.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin late Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-05 04:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050239 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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