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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-08-28 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 280233 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 4( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 9(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 16(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 4 15(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAVANNAH GA 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) KINGS BAY GA 34 21 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 20 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) JACKSONVILLE 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-28 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Ten was located near 30.5, -80.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 2
2017-08-28 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 80.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow and erratic motion is forecast through early Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Monday and move along the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday. A wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h) has recently been reported at NOAA's Gray's Reef buoy off the Georgia coast. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms remain organized, but the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-08-28 04:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280232 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.8W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 80.8W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.9N 81.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.3N 79.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.4N 77.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 39.9N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 43.2N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 47.2N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 80.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-28 01:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 23:36:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 21:30:41 GMT
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