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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-28 01:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Ten was located near 30.9, -80.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 1A
2017-08-28 01:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272334 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 80.3W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow northward motion is expected overnight and Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move slowly offshore of the South Carolina coast tonight and Monday, and then move along or near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or Monday. The disturbance is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to be well organized, but the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with isolated possible maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-27 23:26:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Ten was located near 31.2, -80.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 1
2017-08-27 23:26:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272126 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Corrected to include Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds in the tropical storm watch. ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow northward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move slowly toward the South Carolina coast tonight and Monday. The system is forecast to move near the northeastern coast of South Carolina and along the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday. Satellite wind data and buoy observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The system is expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage and gradually become better organized, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday night through Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-08-27 23:24:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 272124 CCA TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 80.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 80.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.6N 80.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N 80.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 34.1N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.6N 75.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 43.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 47.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 80.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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