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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-27 22:54:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 20:54:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Aug 2017 20:54:04 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-08-27 22:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 272047 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Convection associated with the broad area of low pressure located east of the Georgia coast has increased markedly today. Visibile satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls rotating around a mean center, but ASCAT data earlier today showed that the circulation was not yet well-defined. The ASCAT data and buoy observations indicate that the initial intensity is 30 kt, and buoy data suggest the central pressure is around 1007 mb. While the system is expected to remain sheared, it has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm before it becomes baroclinic in about 48 hours. Given that, and the potential for this system to bring tropical storm conditions to the coast from northern South Carolina through North Carolina, advisories are being initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone. The system is currently moving little in a region of weak steering, but should begin to move slowly northward and then quickly accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into the mid-Atlantic states. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the global models keeping the low center near the coast, but as usual there is more uncertainty than usual in the track forecast for a weak/developing system. After the system moves into the western Atlantic, it should continue accelerating east-northeastward ahead of the upper trough through the end of the period. Despite the sheared envirionment, the system should be able to intensify a little via diabatic processes before it intensifies further as it undergoes a more substantial baroclinic intensification at 48 hours and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast follows the intensity consensus through 36 hours and then follows the trend of the global model guidance and guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Although the potential impacts are within 36 hours, given the uncertainty in whether tropical storm force winds will occur on land in northeastern South Caroilna and southeastern North Carolina, south, a tropical storm watch has been issued for these areas. Note that north of Duck, North Carolina, hazards from this system will be handled with non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 31.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/0600Z 31.6N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 28/1800Z 32.4N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 34.1N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 36.6N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1800Z 43.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z 47.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-08-27 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 272047 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 1( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 1 1( 2) 20(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 1( 2) 23(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 3( 4) 24(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 1 4( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 7( 9) 20(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 13(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 9 19(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 14 15(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 13 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-27 22:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Ten was located near 31.2, -80.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-08-27 22:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 272046 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER... SOUTH CAROLINA... TO DUCK... NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 80.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 80.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.6N 80.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N 80.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 34.1N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.6N 75.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 43.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 47.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 80.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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