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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Public Advisory Number 31
2015-07-19 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 190232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ...DOLORES NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 119.0W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolores was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 119.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Monday night or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dolores continue to affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to reach the coast of southern California. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For additional information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Dolores. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2015-07-19 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 190232 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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dolores
Post-Tropical Cyclone DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 31
2015-07-19 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 190231 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 119.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 119.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 27.5N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.2N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 32.1N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 119.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DOLORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Graphics
2015-07-18 05:14:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 02:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 03:06:29 GMT
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enrique
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-07-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for about 12 hours now, and what little convection that does exist is occurring in a narrow band in the northwestern quadrant more than 75 nmi from the center. Therefore, Enrique no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the system is being designated as a remnant low and advisories are being discontinued at this time. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Unfavorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions should inhibit the re-development of persistent deep convection, so gradual weakening and spin down of the large vortex is expected over the next several days. The NHC official forecast calls for dissipation by 120 hours, similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models. The initial motion is now 225/02 kt. The preponderance of the NHC model guidance continues to indicate that post-tropical Enrique should make a slow and tight counter-clockwise loop during the next 48 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The official track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.3N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 20.1N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 20.6N 136.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 21.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 23.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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