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Remnants of Dolores Graphics
2021-06-20 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 08:35:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 08:35:23 GMT
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Remnants of Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-20 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200834 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Dolores Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Satellite imagery and limited surface observations indicate that Dolores has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico. Although a mid-level circulation is evident in satellite imagery, this structure no longer extends down to the surface. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. Although the system has dissipated, the remnants of Dolores remain capable of producing heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico today, which could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. For more information, see products issued by your national meteorological service. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through today, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 23.5N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Summary for Remnants of Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-20 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND MEXICO... ...STILL A THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Dolores was located near 23.5, -103.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
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remnants
Remnants of Dolores Public Advisory Number 9
2021-06-20 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Dolores Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...DOLORES HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND MEXICO... ...STILL A THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 103.7W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Dolores were located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 103.7 West. The remnants are moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the remnants of Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Bands around the south and southwest side of the remnants of Dolores will produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across southwest Mexico through today. This could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Remnants of Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-06-20 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200834 PWSEP4 REMNANTS OF DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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