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Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Public Advisory Number 24
2018-07-12 17:09:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 922 WTNT33 KNHC 121509 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Advisory Number 24...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 Corrected Discussion and Outlook Section ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS RACING TOWARD CAPE RACE AND THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.4N 57.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the forecast track, Chris is expected to pass over or near the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern Newfoundland late afternoon and early evening today. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A Canadian buoy just east of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (94 km/h) and gust to 71 mph (115 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Even though Chris is moving away from the United States, swells generated by the storm will affect portions of the coast from North Carolina northward to New England during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the southern coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. Sable Island has received more than 2.3 inches (60 millimeters) of rainfall during the past few hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Other information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris can be found in products issued by Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre on the internet at weather.gc.ca/hurricane/. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Graphics
2018-07-12 17:01:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Jul 2018 15:01:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Jul 2018 15:26:01 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-07-12 16:59:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 574 WTNT43 KNHC 121459 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 Extratropical transition has been ongoing for the past few hours, with the rain shield continuing to expand and clouds tops warming in the northwestern semicircle. In addition, surface observations close to the center now show a sharp temperature gradient of almost 20 deg F across the center, which is indicative of the cyclone having merged with a cold frontal system. As a result, Chris has become a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone. The intensity of 60 kt is based on continuity with the previous advisory and earlier ASCAT scatterometer passes. Gradual weakening is forecast by all of the intensity model guidance, but the cyclone is still expected to remain a gale area through 72 hours. Chris has made a slight westward jog, but the latest model guidance insists that the cyclone will start moving back toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 30-31 kt. Post-tropical cyclone Chris is forecast to remain embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow on the east side of a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada for the next 48 hours or so. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to slow down and begin moving northward as it interacts with a larger mid-latitude upper-level low. The NHC model guidance remains tightly packed, so only minor adjustments to the previous advisory track were required, and mainly in just the first 12 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Chris is expected to pass over or near the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern Newfoundland around 2100-0000 UTC this afternoon and evening. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Other information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris can be found in products issued by Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre on the internet at weather.gc.ca/hurricane/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 44.4N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 13/0000Z 47.7N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/1200Z 50.7N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0000Z 53.5N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z 56.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/1200Z 61.6N 18.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-07-12 16:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 411 FONT13 KNHC 121459 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 18 38(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) ILE ST PIERRE 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BURGEO NFLD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris Forecast Advisory Number 24
2018-07-12 16:56:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 293 WTNT23 KNHC 121456 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.7W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 300SE 360SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 57.7W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.4N 59.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 47.7N 52.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.7N 44.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 53.5N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 56.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 61.6N 18.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 57.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA/CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GC.CA/HURRICANE/. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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