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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-07 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 071450 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 12(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 15(29) 2(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 24(70) 1(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 35(53) 1(54) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 7 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.9, -105.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071450 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 105.5W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 105.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight, and could become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071450 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Jimena Graphics
2021-08-06 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 20:32:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 20:32:54 GMT
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