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Tropical Depression Hilda Graphics
2021-08-06 10:39:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 08:39:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 09:22:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-08-06 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060839 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Hilda has been reduced to a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds overnight with no organized deep convection. There has not been any recent scatterometer data to aid determining Hilda's intensity, but a blend of recent subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. If Hilda fails to redevelop organized deep convection soon, an unlikely prospect since sea-surface temperatures under the depression are now around 22 C, the cyclone should soon become a remnant low, possibly as early as later this morning. Complete dissipation of the remnant low is expected by this weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The tropical depression is currently moving west-northwest at 300/10 kt. This heading is expected to continue until dissipation as the system moves along the southern periphery of a low-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one, though is a bit slower, following the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.6N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 136.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 24.1N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Depression Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2021-08-06 10:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 060837 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-06 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 6 the center of Hilda was located near 22.6, -133.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Hilda Public Advisory Number 27
2021-08-06 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 ...HILDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 133.3W ABOUT 1490 MI...2395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 133.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so. Hilda is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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