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Tropical Depression Enrique Graphics
2021-06-30 16:40:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 14:40:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 14:40:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-06-30 16:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 301439 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Enrique Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 After a brief burst of convection near its center overnight, the satellite presentation of Enrique has degraded this morning. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed near the estimated center position, and the only active convection at this time is occurring over the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight satellite-derived wind data supported winds of 25 to 30 kt in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone, and satellite trends suggest Enrique has weakened since then. Additionally, TAFB gave the system a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt this morning, which downgrades Enrique to a tropical depression. Enrique is currently moving northwestward, although it is expected to turn slightly more west-northwestward later today between a weak ridge to its northeast and a low- to mid-level low pressure system well offshore. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the official NHC forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus. Increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment, as well as increasing land interaction, should support continued weakening during the next day or so. As expected, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF do not indicate much potential for additional convective development before the system moves inland tonight. Therefore, Enrique is forecast to become a remnant low over Baja California Sur by Thursday and dissipate shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains associated with Enrique are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 24.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2021-06-30 16:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 301438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-30 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 the center of Enrique was located near 24.6, -110.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Enrique Public Advisory Number 22
2021-06-30 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 301438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Enrique Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 ...ENRIQUE WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 110.0W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Enrique was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will move over Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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