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Tropical Depression Danny Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-06-29 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 290232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Danny Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-06-29 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 81.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 81.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.3N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042021)
2021-06-28 19:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 the center of Four was located near 32.2, -79.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-06-28 19:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281750 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 79.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should make landfall along coast of South Carolina within the warning area later this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected today, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall occurs. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the cyclone. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The depression could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2021-06-28 19:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 17:50:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jun 2021 15:22:35 GMT
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