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Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-06-21 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 210238 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) RALEIGH NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) FAYETTEVILLE 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEW RIVER NC 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-21 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210238 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself is not very well defined. Coastal surface observations indicate that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt. Some additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the Atlantic on Monday. A little more intensification could occur while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast. Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the global models suggest that the system will lose tropical characteristics, or even open up into a trough. Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt. On the projected track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow. The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east- northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the model consensus TVCN. No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United States coasts are required at this time. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across parts of the coastal Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 34.7N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 35.9N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 38.1N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 44.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1200Z 47.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-21 04:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CLAUDETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 34.7, -80.4 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 14
2021-06-21 04:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...CLAUDETTE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 80.4W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again by early Monday over eastern North Carolina. Some additional strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Through Monday morning, Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches across portions of southeastern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina, and south-central to eastern North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as isolated minor river flooding are possible across these areas. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across parts of the coastal Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-06-21 04:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210237 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC MON JUN 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 80.4W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 80.4W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.9N 76.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 38.1N 71.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 44.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 47.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 80.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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