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Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-22 22:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 222051 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-22 22:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 222049 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 33.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.1N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.5N 38.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.0N 41.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.7N 43.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.4N 45.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.0N 46.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 14.2N 49.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 16.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Rose Graphics
2021-09-22 22:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 20:38:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 21:28:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-09-22 22:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222037 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds, with the only significant convection occurring about 120 n mi southeast of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, and are now 25 kt from TAFB and too weak to classify from SAB. Based mainly on earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt. Rose remain in an area of northwesterly shear and upper-level convergence, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. The large-scale model guidance indicates that the hostile conditions will continue for at least another 36 h, and based on model forecasts of convection Rose is now expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 24 h or less. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models suggest the possibility that convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h period due to the remnant low interacting with an upper-level trough. For now, the intensity forecast will not call for re-generation at that time. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. A northwestward motion is expected for the next 12-24 hours as Rose or its remnants are steered by a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. After that time, the system is expected to turn northward, northeastward, and eventually east-northeastward as it becomes steered by a deep-layer trough that includes the remnants of Odette. Since Rose has moved a bit to the west of the previous forecast, the guidance and the new forecast track have also shifted westward during the first 36 h. The new NHC track is to the east of the consensus models for the first 36 h, and close to the consensus aids after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 24.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 25.2N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 26.7N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 28.0N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 29.0N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 29.5N 36.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 30.1N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 31.9N 30.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-22 22:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 24.2, -40.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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