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Summary for Tropical Depression Peter (AT1/AL162021)

2021-09-22 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Peter was located near 21.5, -66.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 15

2021-09-22 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 66.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 9 inches, across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas later today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2021-09-22 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 220834 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-09-22 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 220834 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 66.1W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 66.1W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.1N 65.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 66.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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