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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-09-22 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and only a small area of thunderstorms is lingering on the system's east side. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates. The cyclone is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to increase during the next few days, little change in strength or gradual weakening seems likely. Rose is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 hours when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt, but confidence in the timing of when the system will lose organized convection is low. Some of the models show Rose opening into a trough toward the end of the forecast period, but there are some solutions that hold on to the system for a while longer. The depression is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The system is expected to turn northward in about 36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low- to mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the southeast side of a deep-layer trough. The models are in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 23.4N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 24.2N 39.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 25.5N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 27.0N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 28.4N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 29.5N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 30.1N 36.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 31.2N 31.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-22 10:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 23.4, -38.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-22 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 38.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 39.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 38.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.1N 36.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N 31.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 38.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Peter Graphics
2021-09-22 04:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 02:45:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 02:45:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-09-22 04:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220244 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 The last visible satellite images of Peter this evening indicated that its low-level center was losing definition and becoming even more elongated. Earlier, new bursts of convection associated with Peter had become oriented along a northeast to southwest axis, a possible sign that Peter may no longer have a well-defined center and could be opening up into a trough. But the estimated center position is now obscured by convective debris, and without recent scatterometer data to prove otherwise, Peter is maintained as a sheared tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity of 30 kt is consistent with a UW-CIMSS ADT objective 30-kt estimate and a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from SAB. It is estimated that Peter is moving northwestward, or 310/6 kt, although this is somewhat uncertain given the degraded low-level structure of the cyclone. The track reasoning remains consistent with previous advisories. Peter is forecast to turn more northward on Wednesday, and then move north-northeastward to northeastward through the end of the week as a trough to the north and northeast of Peter erodes the southern portion of the low-level steering ridge. The track consensus aids have shifted slightly to the right this cycle, and so the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of the previous one. Environmental conditions are expected to remain hostile for Peter over the next couple of days. Strong vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt will persist for the next 24-36 h, and GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Peter will be unable to sustain enough deep, organized convection to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone for much longer. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Peter becoming a remnant low in 36 h, with some additional weakening expected before dissipation by this weekend. Of course, without sufficient convection to sustain the low-level vortex, it would not be surprising if the depression degenerated into a trough even sooner than forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through early Wednesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 20.8N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.6N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.6N 66.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 24.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z 25.7N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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