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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-18 16:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181449 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in the northeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates include 35 kt from TAFB, 30 kt from SAB, and 35 kt from CIMSS satellite consensus, which means the depression is close to tropical-storm strength. Given the lack of organization seen in earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will be held at 30 kt pending the data from the next set of scatterometer overpasses. It should be noted that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the depression had to turn back after getting hit by lightning. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/6. For the next 24 h or so, the cyclone should move north-northeastward as it is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. This trough is then expected to lift out to the northeast, with low- to mid-level ridging building to the north of the cyclone. This should cause a westward turn at a continued slow forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough over the central United States should cause the ridge to weaken and steer the cyclone northward to northeastward near the Texas coast. While the guidance agrees with this general sense of the motion, there are a lot of differences in the models on the when's and where's of the various turns. Therefore, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 4 and 5 when the average NHC forecast error is about 175 and 200 miles, respectively. The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate southwesterly shear, and the global models suggest that this will generally continue through the forecast period. This, combined with forecast dry air entrainment near the 72 h point, has resulted in the intensity guidance keeping the system near to below hurricane strength through the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is changed little from the previous one and calls for the cyclone to be at hurricane strength at 60 and 72 h. However, this part of the forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the Texas coast from Sunday through at least the middle of next week as the system is forecast to move slowly near the Texas coast. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind and storm surge impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.8N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.8N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 25.9N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 26.3N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 26.5N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 26.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 26.9N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-18 16:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 181448 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 4(19) 2(21) 3(24) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 9( 9) 19(28) 13(41) 7(48) 3(51) 4(55) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 3(14) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 3(22) 6(28) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 6(16) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 12(31) 5(36) 6(42) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 5(21) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 3(14) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 6(24) 5(29) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 24(47) 13(60) 4(64) 2(66) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 3(24) 3(27) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 6(21) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) 19(44) 5(49) 3(52) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 3(17) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 23(48) 5(53) 4(57) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 3(18) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 8(36) 4(40) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 8(34) 4(38) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 30(46) 19(65) 5(70) 1(71) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) 3(36) 2(38) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 8(25) 3(28) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18(22) 10(32) 4(36) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 9(32) 3(35) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 13(23) 16(39) 9(48) 2(50) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Two (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-18 16:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 the center of Twenty-Two was located near 23.8, -93.9 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-18 16:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 93.9W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 93.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected through early Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-18 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 181447 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 93.9W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 93.9W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.8N 93.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.9N 93.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.3N 93.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.6N 95.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 26.9N 96.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 27.5N 96.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 93.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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