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Tropical Depression Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 170831 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170831 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sally Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Although the overall convective cloud and rain shield in satellite and radar imagery continues to erode, Tropical Depression Sally is still producing significant rainfall across east-central Alabama and west-central and central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has weakened to a 25-kt depression over southeastern Alabama. Sally will continue to weaken, and fairly rapidly at that, due to increasing friction and loss of convection owing to very hostile westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. Sally will likely degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal system over North Carolina by Friday evening. Sally is moving northeastward or 055/10 kt. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion will continue for the next 36 hours or so as the cyclone moves ahead of a broad deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite, and lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus model HCCA. This is the last NHC advisory on Sally. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov KEY MESSAGES: 1. Widespread flooding is expected from central Georgia through southeastern Virginia. Along the central Gulf Coast, most widespread moderate to major river flooding from the historic rainfall event will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain elevated well into next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 31.8N 85.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 32.8N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 34.0N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 35.1N 78.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-17 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 the center of Sally was located near 31.8, -85.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sally Public Advisory Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 170831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sally Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 85.7W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sally was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 85.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama this morning, over central Georgia this afternoon and evening, and move over South Carolina late tonight into Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low by tonight or Friday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall totals expected as Sally moves across the Southeast U.S. through Friday: Central Georgia: Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts, on top of 3 to 6 inches which has already fallen. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Central to upstate South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Western to central North Carolina into south-central and southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is likely. STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede through the day today. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur early this morning across southern Georgia and northern Florida. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas today and tonight. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Sally. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-09-17 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170831 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 85.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 85.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.8N 84.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.0N 81.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.1N 78.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 85.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SALLY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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