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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-18 10:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 94.1W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 94.1W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 94.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N 93.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.9N 93.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.7N 93.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.9N 93.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.3N 95.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 26.7N 96.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 27.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 94.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Graphics
2020-09-18 04:44:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 02:44:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 02:44:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-18 04:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180243 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Inspection of flight-level wind data from the earlier Air Force Reserve mission indicates that the depression has a somewhat elongated circulation, but a sufficiently well-defined center and pressure minimum were found just to the west of NOAA buoy 42055. The plane measured maximum surface winds of 30 kt in the deep convection to the southwest of the center using the SFMR instrument, and that remains the initial intensity. As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt. A positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough extends across Texas and northern Mexico, and this feature should cause the depression to move toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. The trough is expected to dissolve soon after that time, with a mid-tropospheric high building over the south-central United States. The high should force the cyclone to turn and move very slowly westward on days 3 and 4, and then potentially stall or meander off the lower Texas/ northeastern Mexico coast by day 5. There is lower-than-normal confidence in the official track forecast due to fairly significant spread among the track guidance. However, the models do agree on the general scenario, and they all suggest that the depression is unlikely to move a whole lot for the entire forecast period. This new NHC forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and in a very moist environment. Things change quickly after 48 hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier, more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity. As a compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in 2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that this forecast is highly uncertain. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 22.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-18 04:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 180243 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 9(24) 3(27) 1(28) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 16(40) 3(43) 3(46) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 3(21) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 5(29) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 23(38) 6(44) 5(49) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 3(14) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 7(30) 5(35) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 9(32) 5(37) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 6(24) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 5(22) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 31(44) 9(53) 5(58) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) 4(24) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 5(21) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 5(25) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 6(28) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 26(41) 8(49) 5(54) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) 4(21) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-two (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-18 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 the center of Twenty-two was located near 22.0, -94.2 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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