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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2020-07-22 10:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 08:39:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 09:24:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-22 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220832 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by a leveling off thereafter. This is below the model consensus, but above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt. A well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods. This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-22 10:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 220832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-22 10:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SMALL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Jul 22 the center of Seven was located near 10.0, -42.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-22 10:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...SMALL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 42.4W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 42.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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