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Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2020-07-23 11:01:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 09:01:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 09:01:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082020)
2020-07-23 10:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 the center of Eight was located near 26.0, -90.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-23 10:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230859 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 90.0W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 90.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches through Monday along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. These rains may result in flash flooding across the west-central Gulf Coast into portions of south Texas. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-23 10:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230840 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite images and surface synoptic observations suggest that the depression has not strengthened thus far, although recent images show some increase in deep convection near the estimated center. The initial intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in agreement with surface data over the Gulf. The cyclone should remain in a relatively moist, low-shear environment during the next day or so. However, since the system is not well organized, only slow strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper range of the model guidance at this time. The center is not well-defined and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/8 kt. This is more or less consistent with observations from NOAA data buoy 42001 over the central Gulf. A continued west-northwestward track is expected over the next day or so followed by a slight bend toward the west in response to some building of a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 26.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.1N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 27.7N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 28.2N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...ON COAST 72H 26/0600Z 28.2N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0600Z 28.0N 102.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-23 10:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 230839 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 8( 9) 17(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) 1(11) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 1(11) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 13(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 7(26) X(26) 1(27) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) X(25) 1(26) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) X(19) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 2(18) X(18) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) 1(17) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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