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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-04 04:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 02:36:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 03:28:42 GMT
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-10-04 04:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040235 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 In its battle against dry air and shear, Victor is far from its namesake. The depression continues to produce only minimal deep convection to the north. Furthermore, an ASCAT overpass near 2219 UTC casts doubt on whether Victor still has a closed and well-defined circulation, showing generally light winds south of the suspect center. However, no visible imagery is currently available to confirm the state of Victor's surface center, so advisories will continue for now. ASCAT data showed winds a little above 25 kt to the northeast of Victor's center, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Victor is moving northwestward at a slightly faster speed (305/13 kt). Based on the ASCAT data and recent ProxyVis imagery, the center of Victor was relocated about 40 n mi south of previous estimates, which has resulted in a southern shift in the forecast track. That said, Victor is not expected to persist for much longer. The hostile surrounding environment will likely cause Victor to become a remnant low or dissipate on Monday. Victor, or its remnants, should move generally northwestward or west-northwestward until dissipation occurs within a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.8N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.8N 44.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-10-04 04:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 040234 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-04 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR NO VICTOR IN ITS BATTLE AGAINST DRY AIR AND SHEAR... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 3 the center of Victor was located near 17.8, -43.0 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 19
2021-10-04 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...VICTOR NO VICTOR IN ITS BATTLE AGAINST DRY AIR AND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 43.0W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 43.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The system is forecast to move northwestward or west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast. Victor is expected to become a remnant low on Monday and will likely dissipate shortly thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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