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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-10-04 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 44.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 43.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-03 22:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 20:40:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 20:40:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-10-03 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032039 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 The convective structure of Victor has deteriorated this afternoon. Only small pulses of convection have been observed north of the center over the past several hours. Victor's exposed low-level circulation is also becoming more diffuse, with multiple cloud swirls noted in visible satellite imagery. Hopefully, scatterometer data this evening will provide more information about whether Victor still possesses a closed and well-defined surface center. For now, Victor is held as a 30-kt tropical depression, which is consistent with earlier scatterometer winds and a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Victor is unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The dry mid-level environment and 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to limit Victor's ability to sustain deep, organized convection going forward. Even if another diurnal convective pulse occurs tonight, it should be quickly stripped away from the center by the moderate to strong shear. The official NHC forecast shows Victor becoming a remnant low on Monday, then opening up into a trough and dissipating soon thereafter. Victor is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt. A northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-10-03 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 032039 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-03 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED VICTOR EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 3 the center of Victor was located near 17.1, -41.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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