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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 18
2021-10-03 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED VICTOR EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 41.3W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 41.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Victor is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Monday and dissipate soon thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-10-03 22:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032038 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-03 16:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 14:41:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 15:28:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-10-03 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031440 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Victor has managed to maintain an area of deep convection to the northeast of its low-level center through the morning hours. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt. However, an ASCAT-A pass from 1110 UTC indicates the increasingly elongated center of Victor is about 45 n mi south of previous estimates, which puts the center farther away from the edge of the convective overcast. Although a few 35-kt ASCAT wind vectors are noted, these retrievals are collocated with the most intense convection and appear artificially high when compared to the surrounding 20 to 30-kt wind field. Thus, the initial intensity of Victor is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS guidance indicates 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear will persist over Victor today, with even stronger shear expected on Monday. Additionally, the dry mid-level environment that Victor is embedded within appears unfavorable for sustaining deep convection. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected early this week, and Victor is forecast to lose its convection and degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Another plausible scenario is that Victor's low-level center continues to lose definition and the system opens up into a trough with the next couple of days. Either way, Victor does not appear to have much of a future. A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic is steering Victor northwestward, or 310/10 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as Victor moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Although the track reasoning has not changed, the official NHC forecast track lies to the left of the previous advisory due to the center relocation described above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.1N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.6N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.5N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.1N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.4N 48.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-03 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 3 the center of Victor was located near 16.1, -40.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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