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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-16 16:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF GRACE JUST ABOUT TO CROSS THE BARAHONA PENINSULA OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 17.7, -71.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-16 16:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161455 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...CENTER OF GRACE JUST ABOUT TO CROSS THE BARAHONA PENINSULA OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 71.4W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coasts of the provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southern coasts of the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 71.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-16 16:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 161455 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) X(35) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-08-16 16:54:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161454 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 71.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 71.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 70.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 73.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 76.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.4N 79.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.1N 82.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.9N 85.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 71.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-16 16:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 161444 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Although the center of the depression is embedded beneath deep convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are not a consensus T2.5 quite yet. Therefore, the depression is still estimated to be producing maximum winds of 30 kt. Very warm waters and low to moderate deep-layer shear are expected to support strengthening during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, strong northerly to northeasterly shear of 25-30 kt is likely halt any intensification. For the most part, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the tightly clustered SHIPS, LGEM, HCCA, and IVCN aids. As we've seen in several cases this year, the HWRF is a notable high outlier, bringing the system to category 2 hurricane strength in 2-3 days. Given the expected shear, that solution does not appear likely at this point. The depression has been moving southward, or 185/8 kt, and it is expected to rotate around a mid-tropospheric high located over the western Atlantic. Track models are in general agreement that the system will make a clockwise loop in the coming days, with most of the disagreement being in how sharp the turn will be. In part due to the system's initial motion, the updated NHC track forecast now shows a wider, sweeping loop and is close to the TVCA consensus aid. It should be noted that the ECMWF and HCCA aids are even farther south and show an even more gradual turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 31.3N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.2N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 29.9N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 29.8N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.1N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 31.0N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 33.1N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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