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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-16 10:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160847 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 70.2W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 70.2W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 72.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 74.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.3N 77.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.1N 80.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N 83.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.6N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 22.6N 91.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 23.4N 96.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 70.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 12
2021-08-16 10:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160847 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...GRACE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 70.2W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, and in Haiti today into tonight. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Eight Graphics
2021-08-16 07:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 05:55:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 03:35:06 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-16 07:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Aug 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.6, -62.8 with movement S at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-08-16 07:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160553 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 62.8W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 62.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move east and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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