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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-16 04:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160241 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated Grace earlier this evening and found maximum flight level winds just less than 40 kt at 925 mb, which supports Grace's estimated 30 kt intensity. The plane also found that the depression still has a slightly elongated but closed surface circulation. During the past few hours, satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in convective banding features and associated heavy rain associated with Grace. That activity highlights the primary threat from Grace during the next 24 hours: prolonged heavy rainfall that could lead to flash and urban flooding along with the potential for mudslides over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The forecast for Grace is incredibly challenging. Imminent interactions with the high terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could cause Grace to dissipate as soon as Monday evening. However, a track south of Cuba, as shown by recent runs of the GFS and COAMPS-TC, may allow Grace to maintain its tropical cyclone status and possibly even intensify. The HWRF even shows it becoming a hurricane over the western Caribbean, with the caveat that the model has produced several poor forecasts for Grace thus far. Although it is not explicitly forecast, slight intensification is still possible tonight or tomorrow morning before the center of Grace moves inland. After that time, the NHC forecast assumes Grace will continue as a tropical depression through 72 h. Once/if Grace makes it to the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in 3-4 days, it could have an opportunity to reorganize and intensify, and this is again shown in the official intensity forecast. That said, users are encouraged to not focus on the exact track or intensity forecasts at days 4 and 5. The track guidance has shifted south for this advisory, and generally calls for Grace to move westward to west-northwestward through the forecast period. The official track forecast has been shifted a little south once again, but is north of the most recent multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across Cuba beginning Tuesday morning, but forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.3N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.7N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.7N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 19.5N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.4N 78.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 21.2N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 22.2N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 21/0000Z 24.5N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-16 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE CAUSING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IN PUERTO RICO... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 17.3, -68.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-16 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE CAUSING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT IN PUERTO RICO... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 68.6W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 68.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a general westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or just south of west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches of additional rain is possible through Monday. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm total amounts of 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system may impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-16 04:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 989 WTNT22 KNHC 160240 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 68.6W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 68.6W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 70.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 72.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 75.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.4N 78.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N 81.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 89.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 68.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-16 04:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 969 FONT12 KNHC 160240 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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