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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-14 13:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED NEAR WESTERN CUBA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 the center of Fred was located near 23.0, -82.8 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 19A
2021-08-14 13:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141146 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED NEAR WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 82.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-14 10:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 08:42:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 08:42:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-14 10:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 632 FONT11 KNHC 140841 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 10(25) 1(26) X(26) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 14(23) 7(30) 1(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 15(32) 2(34) X(34) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 3(28) X(28) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 4(29) X(29) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 16(51) 1(52) X(52) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) X(23) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-14 10:41:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 the center of Fred was located near 23.3, -81.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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