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Tropical Storm Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2021-08-27 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 271448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 3(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 16(26) 2(28) 1(29) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 25(50) 6(56) 1(57) X(57) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 27(39) 5(44) X(44) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 36(54) 5(59) X(59) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 40(61) 6(67) X(67) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 4(31) X(31) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 45(49) 27(76) 2(78) X(78) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 30(44) 1(45) 1(46) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 37(39) 53(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 61(68) 8(76) X(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 9(52) 1(53) X(53) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 10(44) 2(46) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 46(74) 5(79) X(79) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 5(49) X(49) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 59(70) 18(88) 1(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 27(65) 2(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 26(44) 2(46) X(46) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 55(70) 9(79) X(79) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 6(47) X(47) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 54(80) 6(86) X(86) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) 5(55) X(55) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 2(30) X(30) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 12(57) X(57) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 53(65) 8(73) 1(74) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 7(40) X(40) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 56(70) 7(77) X(77) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 7(45) X(45) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 26(48) 4(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 1(24) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 9(46) 1(47) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 8(51) X(51) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) 5(54) 1(55) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33) X(33) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 6(36) X(36) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) X(26) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) X(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 13 17(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 41 4(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLE OF PINES 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-08-27 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 990 WTNT24 KNHC 271448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W...OVER WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 82.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 4A

2021-08-27 13:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271155 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located by reconnaissance aircraft and weather radar on Grand Cayman near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 81.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move away from the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm Ida (AT4/AL092021)

2021-08-27 13:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Ida was located near 20.3, -81.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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