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Tropical Storm Ida Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-08-27 12:05:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 10:05:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ida Graphics
2021-08-27 10:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 08:58:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 09:23:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ida Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-27 10:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 08:58:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-27 10:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 270857 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 5 12(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 34 X 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 7(25) 2(27) X(27) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 2(24) 1(25) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 2(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 3(29) 1(30) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 22(30) 2(32) 1(33) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 35(47) 12(59) 1(60) X(60) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 4(48) 1(49) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 47(57) 7(64) X(64) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) X(27) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 53(63) 8(71) X(71) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 4(37) X(37) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 54(76) 2(78) X(78) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 2(46) X(46) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 64(76) 17(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 29(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) X(46) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 13(53) 1(54) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) 8(79) X(79) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 6(49) X(49) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 38(77) 3(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 39(48) 3(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 3(30) X(30) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 62(67) 11(78) 1(79) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 10(49) X(49) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 63(71) 9(80) X(80) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 7(50) X(50) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 16(62) 1(63) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 1(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 56(60) 12(72) 1(73) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 10(39) X(39) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 59(63) 11(74) X(74) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 9(41) X(41) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 6(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) 2(33) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 15(49) 1(50) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 12(51) 1(52) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 9(53) 1(54) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) 1(21) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 11(36) 1(37) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) 1(30) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 9(35) X(35) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 1(26) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 28(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 37 22(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ISLE OF PINES 34 87 3(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLE OF PINES 50 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLE OF PINES 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-27 10:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270857 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Radar data from Grand Cayman and satellite imagery indicate that Ida is becoming better organized just to the north of Grand Cayman. The convection has become more concentrated near the center, and the radar data is showing increasing curved banding. In addition, the pressure at Grand Cayman fell to 1003 mb, showing that the central pressure is lower than observed by the aircraft mission yesterday afternoon. Based on a combination of the Grand Cayman observations and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Ida near 12Z. After the earlier wobbling, Ida seems to have resumed a northwestward motion of 320/13. A mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the weekend. This feature should keep Ida moving on a general northwestward track for the next 2 or 3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba this afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Although some model timing differences remain, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the previous forecast through 48 h based on the initial location. However, the 60 and 72 h positions are similar to the previous forecast, and thus there is no significant change to the forecast landfall area in Louisiana at this time. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120 miles. There continues to be some southwesterly shear affecting Ida due to the storm's location between an upper-level trough to the west and an upper-level anticyclone to the east. Some decrease in the shear is expected during the next 24 h, and that, combined with a moist environment and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow steady to rapid strengthening until the cyclone makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. The new intensity forecast is slightly stronger than the previous forecast, and it now calls for Ida to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt before landfall. It should be noted that this intensity is lower than that forecast by the HMON model, the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the Florida State Superensemble. After landfall, Ida should weaken as it moves through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys. Based on the available guidance, there remains higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will approach and impact the Gulf coast during the weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the Cayman Islands, and they are expected in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 4. Ida is also expected to produce heavy rains across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley starting Sunday into Monday, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH 24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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