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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-27 04:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270250 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON...LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 80.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 80.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.9N 82.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.8N 83.9W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.6N 88.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 89.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 33.9N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 80.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-08-27 01:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262343 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 80.1W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF NEGRIL JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 80.1 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba with additional strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Ida could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Ida may begin to bring rainfall and potential flooding impacts to the central Gulf Coast by early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Ida Graphics
2021-08-27 01:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 23:43:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 21:23:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-26 23:16:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:20 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Ida was located near 18.0, -79.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ida Update Statement
2021-08-26 23:16:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT64 KNHC 262116 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown
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